Saturday, January 23, 2010

$SPX - Reversal or Correction?



The above chart is the 5 year daily chart of the S&P 500 with the fib ranges, an inverse H&S with the target and a possible pull back channel.

There are three ranges noted. The longer orange range from top to bottom, the medium purple range from top to consolidation and then most recent range, from the bottom to the most recent high.

The inverse head and shoulders formed at the bottom had a target of rought 1,200. The channel shown in the chart is one way that the target could still be reached given a pull back - the price action is moving the bottom 50% of a channel.

Currently, I am favoring the bears and have a small position in SKF and SMN. If this pullback really has legs I will be looking for a position in SDS as well. The stochastic and MACD show that there is still room.

Perhaps it was this week's political intervention that cut the rally short of the target - on the other hand, the target could still be reached and the up ward trend remain intact.


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