Pace calculations are a tremendous influence in handicapping, as well as speed handicapping. Speed figures are printed in almost any racing form you purchase, pace figures too.
However, do not forget where it all starts, where the speed figures - these pace figures come from, the fractional calls of the prior races .. or, if you will, the past performances.
The Fractional Calls
It is very simple to calculate seconds per furlong, just divide the adjusted fractional calls by the distance, and viola!
If you do not know your points of call, no worries, check out the point of call index at drf.com.
Wait, Adjusted fractional calls?
The fractions listed in the form are of the lead horse at that call in the race, so you need to add the lengths off the leader to the call, a fifth for each quarter length to a length. If the horse was in the lead at that call, do not adjust the time.
Convert the time into seconds, and the fifths into tenths (1/5 = .2), and there it is, the adjusted fractional time :)
Then divide by the furlongs, 2 (quarter mile), 4 (half mile), 6 (3/4 mile) ... whatever it is, the number will the seconds per furlong. At this point, if you like, you can subtract the track variant, as a decimal, ie, .09, from the seconds per furlong. What's the track variant? Please Note: I don't believe equibase publishes a track variant.
Do I have to tell you what to do now?
Pick speed or in reality, best potential speed (hey the horse may have needed that last poor performance but is getting in race shape), really however, you like it. Early speed? You can see some fast avg seconds per furlong, so if it floats the boat, pick it. Front runners? It's all there.
I circle three times, the fastest avg time, the fastest first call, the fastest final call. It is rare that you find a horse with all three circles that is any kind of value, but it is also rare that you have a horse with all three circles.
It may seem overwhelming, but if you actually sit down a few times, and write it out on paper it gets quicker. Use a calculator ... do what ya gotta do. Pretty soon it will be automatic and in your head.
Just remember don't forget to handicap. This is just a part of the process, class drops, trainers, jockeys, track bias, troubled trips all still exist.
REMEMBER THIS
There can be no winning system. Why? Because, in the end this is still a horse race, anything can and will happen. The picks may be hot now, but is it skill? luck? a little of both? what about when the picks are cold? is it the system? is it just bad luck? A winning system can never be proven.
Winning systems, and reliable streams of money are often promised. You may read some articles and websites that discuss the same basic seconds per furlong calculations as above like a big mystery. It's not, it's the first step to understanding what the past performance is actually telling you.
A Few of Tips
If you have calculated seconds per furlong from the horse's last race out, and it was a very fast race, look at how long the horse has been off, the prior layoff times and prior race fractions. The horse maybe on a decline in conditioning, of course, the flip side is finding a horse on the upswing in the conditioning cycle.
Do not be afraid to use a fairly old past performance line, or to calculate out a few races and then average out fractional calls.
Calculate the average of the entire field's seconds per furlong.
